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Zimbabwe Lifts Growth Forecast: Gold and Tobacco Power a Fragile Recovery

  • Writer: Derry Thornalley
    Derry Thornalley
  • Sep 24
  • 2 min read

For years, Zimbabwe’s economic headlines have been dominated by currency crises, droughts, and energy shortages. But this month brought a rare piece of good news: the government has raised its 2025 growth forecast to 6.6%, up from 6.0%, thanks largely to a strong tobacco harvest and the global rally in gold prices.

It’s a reminder of the country’s enduring potential — and also of its vulnerabilities.


Tobacco and Gold: The Old Reliables

Agriculture and mining have always been central to Zimbabwe’s story. Tobacco remains the country’s top cash crop, with exports bringing in vital foreign exchange. This year’s harvest has exceeded expectations, helping to cushion households and lift rural incomes.


At the same time, Zimbabwe is benefiting from a global upswing in gold. As investors flock to safe-haven assets amid international uncertainty, Zimbabwe’s miners are reaping higher revenues. Together, these two sectors have given the government confidence to revise growth projections upward.



But Is It Sustainable?

While the upgrade is welcome, it raises an important question: how much of Zimbabwe’s growth rests on commodity cycles that it cannot control? Gold prices can fall as quickly as they rise. Tobacco production is vulnerable to climate shocks, particularly drought.


For true resilience, Zimbabwe will need to invest in value addition — processing its tobacco into finished products, refining gold locally, and developing downstream industries that capture more of the value chain. Without this, the country risks celebrating growth spikes that fade as global conditions shift.


A Window of Opportunity

Higher revenues give policymakers breathing space. They can build fiscal buffers, invest in infrastructure, and strengthen governance. Used wisely, this moment could lay the groundwork for longer-term stability.

But if history is a guide, there is also the risk of complacency — relying on short-term gains rather than tackling structural reforms.


My Take

Zimbabwe’s growth forecast upgrade is a positive signal, both to citizens and to investors watching from afar. It shows the country is still capable of resilience even in difficult circumstances.


But this is a window of opportunity, not a permanent fix. If Zimbabwe uses the windfall from gold and tobacco to diversify its economy and strengthen its institutions, today’s 6.6% forecast could be the start of something bigger. If not, it risks being just another high point in a cycle of volatility.

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