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Kenya’s $311m Power Lines Gamble: PPPs, Grid Risk and the Search for Space on a Crowded Balance Sheet
Kenya has just placed a big bet on keeping the lights on – without blowing up its public balance sheet. On Monday, the finance ministry signed a $311 million agreement with Africa50 , the Morocco-based pan-African infrastructure fund, and PowerGrid Corporation of India to design, finance, build and operate two new high-voltage electricity transmission lines and associated substations. The deal will be structured as a public-private partnership (PPP) . A project company led
Dec 17, 20256 min read


Africa’s 2025 Debt Maturity Wall: Yuan Swaps, Local Bonds and the Rise of Real-Time Risk
For more than a decade, African governments surfed a global wave of cheap money. From 2007 to 2024, annual sovereign bond issuance in Africa jumped from about US$70 billion to US$350 billion , while the stock of marketable bond debt ballooned from US$160 billion to US$730 billion . Add in domestic borrowing and loans from multilaterals, China and private lenders, and total public debt on the continent has risen more than fourfold to around US$2 trillion . In 2025, the bill is
Dec 15, 20256 min read


Bypassing the Dollar: Inside Africa’s $329 Billion Cross-Border Payments Shake-Up
For decades, a simple rule defined African trade: If a Kenyan company wanted to pay a supplier in Zambia, or a Ghanaian importer needed to settle a bill in Rwanda, the money went on a long, expensive detour through the U.S. dollar and a chain of foreign correspondent banks. In 2025, that rule is being rewritten. Africa’s cross-border payments market is already worth around US$329 billion a year and is projected to more than triple to US$1 trillion by 2035 , according to a ne
Dec 15, 20256 min read


Tanzania’s Quiet Outperformance: Low Inflation, Climate Money and the Risks No One Sees
In a year when African headlines have been dominated by debt restructurings, currency slumps and rating downgrades, Tanzania has done something unfashionable. It has quietly… behaved. Growth has been robust, inflation low, and its relationship with the IMF not defined by crisis talks, but by steady reviews of a reform programme that is, broadly, on track. At the end of June, the IMF Executive Board signed off on Tanzania’s 2025 Article IV consultation , completed the fifth re
Dec 15, 20256 min read


ZiG, Tight Money and 6.6% Growth: Is Zimbabwe Finally Turning the Corner?
On paper, Zimbabwe’s story in late 2025 looks almost unrecognisable from the crisis headlines of just a few years ago. The World Bank’s latest Zimbabwe Economic Update projects 6.6% GDP growth in 2025 , outpacing most of Sub-Saharan Africa, driven by a rebound in agriculture, services, and renewed investment in mining and steel. Inflation, which has been triple-digit more often than not over the past decade, is now falling sharply : industry data show ZiG-based annual inflat
Dec 15, 20255 min read


Selling the Crown Jewel: What Kenya’s Safaricom Deal Really Means
Kenya is cashing in its crown jewel. In the biggest privatisation move in nearly 20 years, the government has agreed to sell a 15% stake in Safaricom – East Africa’s most valuable company – to Vodacom/Vodafone for roughly $1.6 billion , cutting the state’s holding from 35% to 20% and handing majority control to the South African group. The deal is priced at KES 34 per share , a hefty premium to recent market levels, and includes an upfront payment of about KES 40.2 billion
Dec 15, 20255 min read


The Debt You Don’t See: Senegal, Hidden Liabilities and Africa’s New Warning Signal
For years, Senegal was held up as one of West Africa’s “good news” macro stories: steady growth, big infrastructure, a reputation for political stability and reform. Then the numbers changed. In 2024–2025, the new administration revealed billions of dollars in previously undisclosed public borrowing. The IMF now estimates Senegal’s total public sector debt at around 132% of GDP at end-2024 , versus roughly 80% just two years earlier – a jump driven largely by hidden liabiliti
Dec 9, 20255 min read


From Default to Upgrade: Is Ghana’s Comeback Built to Last?
Three years ago, Ghana was the cautionary tale of African finance. After years of heavy borrowing and external shocks, the country defaulted on its international debt in 2022 and scrambled into a $3 billion IMF programme in 2023. Eurobond coupons went unpaid, inflation blew out, the cedi plunged and confidence evaporated. Fast-forward to late 2025 and the headlines look very different. Ghana has: Completed the restructuring of its Eurobonds (around $13 billion) in October 202
Dec 9, 20256 min read


Frontier on Fire: Is Uganda’s 18% Bond Market a Gift or a Time Bomb?
Uganda has suddenly become the place where yield-hungry investors go to “squeeze the last drop” out of frontier markets. Offshore holdings of Uganda’s shilling government bonds have surged to around $2.7 billion , about 12% of total domestic government debt – a record high, driven largely by global funds rotating back into high-yield local currency paper. At the same time, the government has pushed out the curve with a 25-year bond , which in its latest auction cleared at a
Dec 9, 20255 min read


Kenya’s New Debt Playbook: Food Security Swaps and Toll-Road Pensions
Kenya is rewriting its debt story in real time. In the space of a few weeks, Nairobi has: Agreed a $1 billion debt-for-food security swap with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC); and Launched a $1.5 billion Chinese-backed highway expansion , with Kenya’s own National Social Security Fund (NSSF) taking equity risk in a 28-year toll concession.() Two very different deals. One goal: create breathing room on the public balance sheet while still funding
Dec 9, 20255 min read


Africa’s Trillion-Dollar Shift: When the State Becomes the Biggest Investor
For decades, African finance ministers flew to Washington, London or Beijing when they needed capital. Today, a quiet reversal is underway. According to new data from state-owned investor tracker GlobalSWF, African public institutions now manage close to $1 trillion in assets – a historic high. That pool sits not in foreign aid budgets, but in: Public pension funds Central bank reserve portfolios Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) Public development banks and social security inst
Dec 9, 20255 min read


Economic Losses in Africa (2005–2025) and Potential Gains from Stable Investments
Between 2005 and 2025, African economies have experienced significant wealth erosion due to armed conflicts, currency collapses, hyperinflation, and other disruptions. These factors have devalued personal savings and reduced purchasing power across the continent. In this report, we estimate the total monetary loss over this period and compare it to the potential growth had those funds been invested in stable assets like the S&P 500 index, gold, or global real estate funds.
Dec 5, 202518 min read


Local vs Global: Is Your Pension Quietly Burning Your Money?
If you work in Africa’s finance world long enough, you start to see the same pattern. Two people. Same salary. Same contribution rate. Same number of years saving. On paper, they’re doing everything “right”. Yet when retirement finally arrives, their outcomes are miles apart. One has a portfolio that still buys real things – school fees, healthcare, travel, dignity. The other has a statement full of big numbers that don’t stretch nearly as far as they should. The difference o
Dec 5, 20254 min read


When “home bias” becomes “home risk”
Most investors start at home. It’s familiar: you understand the banks on your high street, the telco you use every day, the government securities your adviser talks about. In many African markets, those local instruments also offer attractive nominal yields. But the last decade has shown how fragile that comfort can be: Currency shocks can wipe out years of returns when measured in hard currency. Inflation spikes can quietly erode the real value of cash, deposits and even s
Dec 3, 20254 min read


Enhance Your Portfolio with Tailored Investment Administration Solutions
In today’s fast-evolving financial landscape, managing a diverse portfolio requires more than just traditional methods. The complexity of global markets, regulatory demands, and client expectations calls for customized investment tools that can adapt and scale efficiently. I have seen firsthand how leveraging tailored solutions can transform portfolio management, making it more streamlined, compliant, and ultimately more profitable. Why Customized Investment Tools Matter Gen
Dec 3, 20254 min read


Terra Mauricia: From Sugar Fields to Sustainable Growth in Mauritius
Since its listing in 1990, Terra Mauricia Ltd (originally Harel Frères) has demonstrated remarkable resilience and evolution on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius. Initially rooted in sugar production, the company diversified into energy, beverages, and property development, navigating industry reforms, commodity price swings, and global shocks like the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. Its share price reflected these cycles—rising steadily in the early 1990s, peaking in the m
Dec 1, 202515 min read


Frontier on Fire: Hot Money Pours Into Uganda’s Local Debt
When global investors start talking about “squeezing the last drop out of the lemon,” they’re talking about places like Uganda. In late November, Uganda’s shilling government bond market has quietly become one of the hottest frontier trades in the world. More than $2 billion of Uganda’s domestic government bonds are now held offshore – a record – with S&P Global estimating non-resident holdings at roughly $2.7 billion, about 12% of total domestic government debt . For a coun
Dec 1, 20255 min read


Debt, Climate and the IMF: Can Tanzania Turn Borrowing Into Resilience?
On paper, Tanzania is one of Africa’s steadier macro stories. Growth is holding around 6% , inflation sits comfortably inside target, and the IMF has just signed off on another review of a twin financing package that blends classic balance-of-payments support with climate-focused funding. But as 2025 closes, a different narrative is creeping in. In late November, President Samia Suluhu Hassan warned publicly that “financiers are starting to shut the taps” on Tanzania, days
Dec 1, 20256 min read


Two Upgrades in Eight Days: Can Zambia Turn Ratings Relief into Real Investment?
For the first time since it tumbled into default in 2020, Zambia is beginning a new month with something it has not seen in years: two major rating agencies moving in the right direction at the same time. On 21 November 2025 , S&P Global Ratings lifted Zambia’s foreign-currency sovereign rating from selective default (SD) to CCC+/C with a stable outlook , explicitly acknowledging that the country had “exited default status” after making substantial progress in restructuring i
Dec 1, 20256 min read


China’s Back, Pensions Are In: Inside Kenya’s $1.5 Billion Toll Highway Bet
When President William Ruto’s government announced a new $1.5 billion highway expansion last week, it was the flags that told the story: Chinese and Kenyan colours flying side by side as officials unveiled plans to rebuild the country’s most important transport corridor. The project will upgrade sections of the road linking Mombasa, Nairobi and western Kenya , a route that carries much of the region’s trade to and from the Indian Ocean. It is also China’s biggest new infrast
Dec 1, 20256 min read

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