Chasing Single Digits: ZiG Inflation Falls to 19% and a Nervous Calm Sets In
- Derry Thornalley
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
On the streets of Harare, prices are still quoted in both U.S. dollars and ZiG. But for the first time in years, the headline number that has haunted Zimbabweans for decades is starting to look almost ordinary.
According to the latest data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat), annual inflation measured in Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) fell to 19% in November 2025, down from 32.7% in October.
It is a dramatic shift from just a few months ago. In July, annual ZiG inflation was still running close to 96%, one of the highest rates in the world. Since then, a combination of a tighter monetary stance, a more stable exchange rate and abundant gold revenues has pushed price growth down every month, hitting the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s (RBZ) internal year-end target ahead of schedule.
On paper, Zimbabwe is now within touching distance of something it has not seen consistently since the 1990s: single-digit inflation.
How did we get from 96% to 19%?
The RBZ and Treasury are keen to frame this as the payoff from discipline.
In an August Monetary Policy Statement, the RBZ pledged to keep money supply growth tight, hold the policy rate at 35%, and defend a relatively stable ZiG exchange rate, underpinned by gold and foreign-currency reserves it says now exceed 100% of ZiG in circulation.
Finance ministry documents tabled in Parliament later in the year paint a similar picture: monthly ZiG inflation averaged just 0.4% between February and October 2025, a far cry from the double-digit monthly spikes of the 2019–2020 crisis era.
External observers, including the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) and independent research outfits, credit three main factors:
A scarcity of ZiG in circulation, which has limited speculative pressure on prices and FX;
Strong gold export revenues and high international prices, boosting the RBZ’s reserve cover and helping finance imports;
A deliberate effort to anchor expectations, including a published target of keeping year-end inflation below 30% in 2025.
By November, the data finally matched the rhetoric. ZimStat’s release shows the ZiG consumer price index up 19% year-on-year – well inside the RBZ’s target corridor and much closer to regional norms.
New notes, old doubts
The central bank has tried to reinforce the message with something more tangible: new cash.
In recent months, the RBZ has begun producing a redesigned family of ZiG banknotes, with upgraded security features and more durable substrates. The new series is intended to cover all denominations from 10ZiG upwards and replace the first batch of notes issued in April 2024.
Officials present this as a technical upgrade – better paper, better anti-counterfeiting technology – but it also carries political symbolism. A fresh set of notes is meant to signal that ZiG is not a temporary experiment but a currency the authorities are prepared to invest in and refine.
Sceptics see a different story. For them, redesigned notes are a reminder of a long line of failed currencies – bearer cheques, bond notes, RTGS dollars – that saw their value wiped out by inflation and abrupt policy shifts. Analyses in local and regional media point out that even with inflation falling, trust in ZiG remains shallow and a persistent parallel-market premium over the official exchange rate suggests that many still prefer the U.S. dollar as their store of value.
A 2030 deadline – and a two-track reality
The stabilisation campaign sits inside a much bigger project: de-dollarisation.
The government has repeatedly stated its intention to move from the current multi-currency system to a ZiG-only “mono-currency” regime by 2030, with the RBZ publishing a roadmap that sets out intermediate targets for currency usage, inflation and reserve cover.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautiously welcomed the recent stability but urged Harare to provide far more detail on what that transition would mean in practice – for bank deposits, for contracts, and for the role of the U.S. dollar in domestic payments.
On the ground, Zimbabwe is living a two-track reality:
A domestic economy where ZiG is legally recognised, used for some wages, taxes and day-to-day payments, and where inflation is now falling fast;
A hard-currency ecosystem – including the US-dollar-denominated Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) – that continues to attract investors seeking shelter from local currency risk and unresolved external arrears of around US$12.2 billion.
The risk, analysts warn, is that if de-dollarisation is mishandled, the very success of hard-currency channels like VFEX will make them feel less like a complement to ZiG markets and more like an escape route.
Where Verī Platform fits into Zimbabwe’s near-single-digit moment
For regulated institutions in Zimbabwe – banks, asset managers, pension funds, insurers and stockbrokers – this environment creates a particularly awkward challenge:
They are expected to support ZiG markets, hold local-currency assets and help deepen domestic capital formation;
Their clients – both local and regional – still demand meaningful hard-currency exposure, whether via offshore funds, VFEX-listed counters or foreign bonds;
Regulators and international partners want clean, consolidated oversight of currency, credit and duration risks across both sides of that divide.
Verī Platform is designed to sit behind those institutions and quietly bridge the gap.
Operating out of Mauritius and other hubs, Verī connects to multiple local and international custodians so a Zimbabwean firm can, within one regulated environment:
Hold ZiG-denominated assets – government paper, local-currency bank deposits, ZSE listings – alongside hard-currency instruments such as VFEX equities and offshore funds;
Reconcile all positions daily, regardless of where they are held, into a single, client-level ledger;
Produce regulator-ready reports that show, at a glance, how much of a portfolio is in ZiG versus USD, in domestic versus foreign markets, or in any given issuer or sector.
For a pension fund or asset manager trying to balance the opportunities of a stabilising ZiG economy with the prudence of hard-currency diversification, that kind of infrastructure is rapidly moving from “nice-to-have” to essential.
A fragile milestone
None of this means Zimbabwe is out of the woods. The country still faces heavy external arrears, limited reserves – barely a fraction of the IMF’s recommended three months of import cover – and deep public scepticism born of past crises.
But the November inflation print is a genuine milestone. If ZiG inflation can move from 96% in July to 19% five months later without triggering a fresh currency crisis, it suggests that – for now – the combination of gold backing, tight money and cautious fiscal policy is holding.
Whether that nervous calm can be turned into durable confidence will depend on what happens next: how quickly the government clarifies its 2030 plan, how honestly it handles the parallel market, and whether it can keep inflation gliding down into single digits without choking off growth.
For now, Zimbabweans are watching price tags a little less anxiously. That alone is a change worth noting.
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