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Tanzania’s Quiet Outperformance: Low Inflation, Climate Money and the Risks No One Sees
In a year when African headlines have been dominated by debt restructurings, currency slumps and rating downgrades, Tanzania has done something unfashionable. It has quietly… behaved. Growth has been robust, inflation low, and its relationship with the IMF not defined by crisis talks, but by steady reviews of a reform programme that is, broadly, on track. At the end of June, the IMF Executive Board signed off on Tanzania’s 2025 Article IV consultation , completed the fifth re
Dec 15, 20256 min read


From Default to Upgrade: Is Ghana’s Comeback Built to Last?
Three years ago, Ghana was the cautionary tale of African finance. After years of heavy borrowing and external shocks, the country defaulted on its international debt in 2022 and scrambled into a $3 billion IMF programme in 2023. Eurobond coupons went unpaid, inflation blew out, the cedi plunged and confidence evaporated. Fast-forward to late 2025 and the headlines look very different. Ghana has: Completed the restructuring of its Eurobonds (around $13 billion) in October 202
Dec 9, 20256 min read


Frontier on Fire: Is Uganda’s 18% Bond Market a Gift or a Time Bomb?
Uganda has suddenly become the place where yield-hungry investors go to “squeeze the last drop” out of frontier markets. Offshore holdings of Uganda’s shilling government bonds have surged to around $2.7 billion , about 12% of total domestic government debt – a record high, driven largely by global funds rotating back into high-yield local currency paper. At the same time, the government has pushed out the curve with a 25-year bond , which in its latest auction cleared at a
Dec 9, 20255 min read


Kenya’s New Debt Playbook: Food Security Swaps and Toll-Road Pensions
Kenya is rewriting its debt story in real time. In the space of a few weeks, Nairobi has: Agreed a $1 billion debt-for-food security swap with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC); and Launched a $1.5 billion Chinese-backed highway expansion , with Kenya’s own National Social Security Fund (NSSF) taking equity risk in a 28-year toll concession.() Two very different deals. One goal: create breathing room on the public balance sheet while still funding
Dec 9, 20255 min read

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