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Tanzania’s Quiet Outperformance: Low Inflation, Climate Money and the Risks No One Sees
In a year when African headlines have been dominated by debt restructurings, currency slumps and rating downgrades, Tanzania has done something unfashionable. It has quietly… behaved. Growth has been robust, inflation low, and its relationship with the IMF not defined by crisis talks, but by steady reviews of a reform programme that is, broadly, on track. At the end of June, the IMF Executive Board signed off on Tanzania’s 2025 Article IV consultation , completed the fifth re
Dec 15, 20256 min read


The Debt You Don’t See: Senegal, Hidden Liabilities and Africa’s New Warning Signal
For years, Senegal was held up as one of West Africa’s “good news” macro stories: steady growth, big infrastructure, a reputation for political stability and reform. Then the numbers changed. In 2024–2025, the new administration revealed billions of dollars in previously undisclosed public borrowing. The IMF now estimates Senegal’s total public sector debt at around 132% of GDP at end-2024 , versus roughly 80% just two years earlier – a jump driven largely by hidden liabiliti
Dec 9, 20255 min read


Debt, Climate and the IMF: Can Tanzania Turn Borrowing Into Resilience?
On paper, Tanzania is one of Africa’s steadier macro stories. Growth is holding around 6% , inflation sits comfortably inside target, and the IMF has just signed off on another review of a twin financing package that blends classic balance-of-payments support with climate-focused funding. But as 2025 closes, a different narrative is creeping in. In late November, President Samia Suluhu Hassan warned publicly that “financiers are starting to shut the taps” on Tanzania, days
Dec 1, 20256 min read


Two Upgrades in Eight Days: Can Zambia Turn Ratings Relief into Real Investment?
For the first time since it tumbled into default in 2020, Zambia is beginning a new month with something it has not seen in years: two major rating agencies moving in the right direction at the same time. On 21 November 2025 , S&P Global Ratings lifted Zambia’s foreign-currency sovereign rating from selective default (SD) to CCC+/C with a stable outlook , explicitly acknowledging that the country had “exited default status” after making substantial progress in restructuring i
Dec 1, 20256 min read


From Default to ‘Investable Again’: Zambia’s Long Road Back
Five years after missing a US$42.5 million Eurobond coupon and tumbling into default, Zambia has finally clawed its way back into the good graces of at least one major rating agency. On Friday, S&P Global Ratings lifted Zambia’s long- and short-term foreign-currency ratings to CCC+/C from selective default (SD) , formally removing the scarlet letter that has hung over the country since 2020. “It confirms that Zambia has moved out of default status and is steadily restoring
Nov 24, 20255 min read


Ghana’s Gold Pivot: Scrapping VAT on Exploration to Keep Its Mining Crown
When Ghana’s finance minister, Cassiel Ato Forson, stood up to present the 2026 budget, one line cut through the usual noise of deficits and debt targets: after 25 years, the government would abolish the 15% VAT on mineral exploration and reconnaissance . For most Ghanaians, it sounded technical. For the mining industry, it was seismic. For a quarter of a century, companies prospecting for gold and other minerals have paid VAT on high-risk, upfront spending – drilling, assayi
Nov 24, 20255 min read


Uganda Opens the Taps on Grassroots Finance as Debt Warnings Grow
The money arrived first as a text message. In a parish on the edge of eastern Uganda, the chair of a small savings and credit cooperative opened her phone on Wednesday morning to see a balance she had never imagined: 50 million shillings – roughly US$13,700 – wired straight into the group’s new account. It was the first tangible sign that Kampala’s latest push to attack poverty from the bottom up is finally hitting the ground. This week, the Ministry of Finance confirmed it h
Nov 21, 20254 min read


IMF Commends Reforms But Blocks New Lending on Zimbabwe’s Arrears
Harare, 16 October 2025 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has offered cautious praise for Zimbabwe’s recent fiscal and monetary reforms, acknowledging steps toward macroeconomic stabilization. Yet despite progress, the global lender remains unable to extend new credit due to Zimbabwe’s substantial debt arrears. Instead, the two parties are engaging under a structured dialogue framework aimed at building institutional credibility ahead of a more formal program. The cor
Oct 17, 20255 min read


Kenya Eyes Debt Buybacks and Longer Bonds: Managing Pressure in 2025
Kenya’s government is once again at a crossroads in its debt journey. This week, news broke that the Treasury is weighing a debt buyback...
Aug 21, 20253 min read

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