On paper, Kenya’s macro story in late 2025 looks surprisingly calm. Inflation is 4.6% , right in the middle of the government’s 2.5–7.5% target range. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has cut its policy rate eight meetings in a row, from 13% in early 2024 to 9.25% today, arguing there is still room to ease. The World Bank this week nudged its 2025 growth forecast up to 4.9% , citing a rebound in construction and still-solid agriculture. Yet scratch the surface and a more c
